***THE UNREPORTED TRUTH ON THE MIDDLE EAST***
By J. Adams
October 29th, 1996
"Mad world! Mad kings! Mad composition!"
('King John'; Act II, sc.1)
Notably, when I saw that mysterious special report of a chemical SCUD attack on Israel back in February of 1991, Haifa was under attack. This is interesting since, if Iraq is going to launch this chemical attack as I've been expecting, then you would think that Tel Aviv is going to be the primary target. Given how Haifa is north of Tel Aviv, maybe the chemical SCUD attack on Israel I foresaw more than five years ago is going to be launched by Syria rather than Israel. Either way, the clear outcome of the next Arab/Israeli war is precisely what my friend and I heard about a week after I saw the special report of the chemical attack on Israel in 1991- an air-raid siren followed by the percussion of a nuclear explosion (see "The Truth").
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
October 28, 1996
"Israel on 'top alert' in Golan, defence minister says"
Israeli forces on the Golan Heights are on top alert for fear that
Syria might use current military exercises to launch a surprise attack
there, Israeli Defence Minister Itzhak Mordechai said Monday.
Mordechai told the foreign affairs and defence committee of the
Israeli Knesset that Israel was "paying special attention to what
happens in their territory whether it is preparations for an exercise
or other options".
Mordechai stressed that Israel was not interested in escalation,
and called on Syria to renew peace negotiations. He indicated an
apparent softening of the rightwing government's rejection of
territorial compromise. "There is not one senior minister in the
government who has said we will not give up an inch of the Golan,"
Mordechai said.
Mordechai's comments came in a period of rising tensions between
Israel and Syria following Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu's
rejection of full withdrawal from the Golan as a basis for peace.
The Ha'aretz daily reported Monday that the Israeli army is
requesting a budget increase of 3.5 billion shekels (3.2 billion
dollars) to prepare the army for war.
The budgetary change was needed, said the paper, because of
revised intelligence estimates that a war with Syria was now a
possibility following the demise of the peace process between the two
sides. Without the changes the proposed budget is 30.6 billion
shekels.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Jerusalem Post
October 28, 1996
"How serious is the Syrian threat?"
By Arieh O'Sullivan
THE Defense Ministry is reportedly putting heavy pressure on the
government not only to reverse the Finance Ministry's proposal to cut
NIS 850 million from the defense budget, but to increase it by
hundreds of millions of shekels to deal with the growing threat of
confrontation with Syria.
The army is closely watching the beefed-up Syrian army's winter
maneuvers on the Golan Heights. Given the chemical warfare
capabilities and the sophisticated ground- to-ground missiles that
have been added to the Syrian arsenal since 1973, war could be far
more costly than in the past.
For nearly two months, two regiments of Syrian commandos trained
in airborne assault have been positioned on the northern slopes of the
Hermon. Behind them is a crack armored division transferred from
Beirut. These are in addition to the three regular Syrian divisions
positioned permanently opposite the Golan Heights. And the IDF
watches.
"Massing the concentration means (Syrian President Hafez) Assad
can play games with you," said one senior commander. "We can watch for
three weeks and then let our guard down for two hours and then what
have we achieved?"
Assad is getting the IDF used to the new situation, knowing it
cannot afford to confront the Syrians man for man. This way, he
maintains the initiative.
"The Syrians have carried out a chain of events which allow them
to cut the time they need to go into action," said Labor MK and former
chief of general staff Ehud Barak yesterday. "We are now at one of the
most sensitive and tense times in the past 15 years."
Barak told Channel 1 that the government must take all steps to
prevent a deterioration of the situation.
The fear is that if Assad, whose goal is to get the Golan Heights
back, feels peace talks are deadlocked, he will opt for a limited
military strike which could be used as leverage for this aim.
"If we stay on alert for a number of months against the Syrian
army we will cause great damage to the state," said Barak. "If, God
forbid, we get to the point of an attempt by the Syrians to snatch
sections of the Golan or the Hermon and we repel it immediately, we
will cause great damage to Israel's security whether it succeeds or
fails."
Barak called on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to allow the IDF
to carry out any deployment it needs at any cost to keep forces on
high alert. "Anything else will simply be irresponsible," he said.
Israel has a considerable technological advantage over Syria.
Assad knows his T-72 tanks are no match for the Merkava, but his are
20 times cheaper. He can also keep his troops in position to threaten
the Golan for a long time and whittle away at Israel's increasingly
expensive deterrence.
The problem is that the Defense Ministry's books, unlike those of
other ministries, are not open to the public, and we must accept as
fact that what the military claims it needs, it really needs.
The IDF Spokesman declined requests to speak with the general
staff's financial adviser.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Jerusalem Post
October 28, 1996
"Netanyahu: Syrians won't surprise us"
By David Rudge
PRIME Minister Binyamin Netanyahu yesterday issued a clear warning
to Syria not to engage in any military adventure, while reiterating
his call to President Hafez Assad to resume the peace talks.
Netanyahu stressed that Israel is closely monitoring all
developments in Syria and Lebanon and was prepared for any
eventuality.
Asked whether there was a risk of war with Syria if the deadlock
in the peace talks continues, he said: "It would be a tragedy, because
we have offered to resume the peace talks and we have also said that
our purposes in Lebanon, as on the Golan, are purely defensive.
"It should be clear, however, that we observe everything that goes
on and there is no question here of a possible surprise.
"We have taken all the necessary countermeasures for our defense.
I stress again our purpose is defensive, but we will not be surprised
and we will know how to react to a potential attack.
"What I would like to see is not a discussion about countering a
plot or potential threats, but the resumption of the peace talks
between Israel and Syria, which was and remains our basic goal."
Netanyahu spoke during a visit to the navy base in Haifa, during
which he visited a submarine and later embarked on a short trip aboard
one of the navy's biggest and most modern missile ships, the Saar 5
Eilat.
"I want to say, here, while we are on the deck of the Israel Navy
ship, that we have a strong, determined army, with special
technological capabilities and exemplary officers and soldiers," said
Netanyahu.
"This army, which is changing its face every day, can answer any
threat facing us. This army, however, has one aim -- to defend the
country and give Israel the strength and power to achieve a lasting
peace.
"The strength of the IDF, such as the navy, is vital to help
achieve and preserve peace and these two aims we will achieve."
Asked if the government had received any new information regarding
missing airman Ron Arad as a result of efforts of German mediator
Bernd Schmidbauer, Netanyahu said: "I will say that our view of the
Ron Arad situation has not changed. We have always considered him to
be alive and in captivity and we expect his captors to heed the most
basic humanitarian principle of returning him home to his family and
his people."
Prior to his visit to Haifa, Netanyahu paid a condolence call on
the widow of Col. Nabih Mari, at her home in Hurfeish in the Galilee.
Mari was killed in Rafiah during the eruption of violence following
the opening of an exit to the Western Wall tunnels.
"Mr. Prime Minister, I want to ask you a question and I want you
to answer it," Sharha Mari told Netanyahu as they sat in her home.
"Several days ago, a number of students from the Mt. Meron Field
School came here on a condolence visit and asked me if I was angry
with the Palestinians or somebody else.
"I answered them that I was angry with the government and the
prime minister because you opened the tunnel without discussing it
with my husband or his colleagues in the army, or the army itself.
"And you have seen what the opening of the tunnel did - 15
soldiers were killed and I lost my husband and my only daughter lost
her father. What was it worth. Why did you do it?"
Netanyahu evaded the question, while stressing that Israel is
trying to achieve peace with the Palestinians.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
October 26, 1996
"USA 'tampered' with Syrian message to Israel;
'secret' talks revealed"
(Source: Ma'ariv, Tel Aviv, in Hebrew 25 Oct 96)
The USA "tampered" with a Syrian message relayed to Jerusalem
through Secretary of State Warren Christopher, intended to reassure
Israel, the Israeli daily 'Ma'ariv' has said. In response to Israeli
concern, President Asad sent a message via Christopher stating
unequivocally that Syrian troop movements were defensive in nature and
that Syria had no intention of going to war with Israel. Christopher,
the newspaper alleges, conveyed this to Jerusalem, adding that Syria
"had also stressed that if no progress were made in the peace
process... Asad would feel free to use every option and act" . The
article also reveals for the first time the main points of messages
exchanged between Israel and Syria in secret talks recently conducted
by US peace envoy Ed Djerejian. The following are excerpts from an
article written by Ben Kaspit entitled "United States 'Tampered' With
Syrian Message To Scare Netanyahu" , published by 'Ma'ariv' on 25th
October:
According to intelligence estimates and the thrilled media, the
fuse is already lit. The question is not if the conflagration will
take place, but when. Syria, experts say, will not live with a freeze
and will choose a military option. The clock is ticking, the writing
is on the wall, war is on its way.
Over the last several weeks, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has
devoted most of his time and energy to the Syrian issue. The height of
the crisis was on 12th October when, at 0400 [local time], the air
force sent its fighter jets to encounter a suspicious movement of
Syrian helicopters in the Mount Hermon area. When Netanyahu received
the report of the incident from his aide de camp Ze'ev Livne, his face
turned white.
Very few people know that while these events were taking place,
Israel and Syria have been engaged in a quiet, secret and not
unfruitful dialogue which, over the last two weeks, has been conducted
through two middlemen: former US Ambassador [to Syria and Israel] Ed
Djerejian and George Nader, an American journalist of Lebanese origin.
Djerejian's tour was covered by the media, but the main points of
the messages exchanged are revealed here for the first time. Nader's
mission, which has so far been kept secret, was even more interesting.
In its course, and by accident, an amazing fact was revealed by both
sides: the Americans heated up the atmosphere recently between
Damascus and Jerusalem by "tampering" with a calming Syrian message
that was relayed to Jerusalem through Washington. The Syrians, who
learned of this first, got angry and even considered cutting
themselves off from the US channel.
It is hard to believe this story at first glance, but the facts
were given to 'Maariv' by an Arab source, checked with Jerusalem, and
double-checked with Washington. It appears that during Netanyahu's
previous trip to Washington he had raised with President Clinton his
concern over the tension on the northern border. In reaction, Clinton
sent an urgent letter to Asad with a calming Israeli message and
expressed US concern.
In response, Asad sent his Ambassador to Washington Walid al-
Mu'allim with a calming message, stating unequivocally: " Syria does
not intend to go to war with Israel. Our army movements are made for
defensive purposes and out of caution. We do not want to be surprised.
We learnt our lesson in 1982 in Lebanon, and we are no longer taking
chances."
Secretary of State Warren Christopher, however, summoned Israeli
Ambassador Eliyahu Ben-Elisar and told him that Syria had stated that
its military moves were defensive in nature, but that it had also
stressed that if no progress were made in the peace process and the
negotiations remained frozen, Asad would feel free to use every option
and act.
Upon hearing the message, an explicit threat of war, Ben-Elisar was
frightened and reacted sharply: "It is impossible for the side whose
stands are not accepted to threaten war, " he told Christopher. "You
Americans must consider the Syrian message as a threat no less than we
do. Asad should learn from Sadat, who came to Jerusalem and declared
'No More War' ."
The Israeli ambassador sent an urgent cable to Jerusalem, as
'Maariv' reported at the time, which caused even more panic in the
Prime Minister's Office and further raised the level of the IDF
[Israel Defence Force] alert. The Syrians are preparing for war,
Netanyahu thought.
Netanyahu did not know then that the Syrian message had been "
rearranged and fixed" by the Americans, and had not been relayed as it
should have been. Christopher, apparently upon consulting [US Middle
East peace coordinator Dennis] Ross, and with Clinton's knowledge,
decided to scare Netanyahu a little. Why not? It seems that the
Americans did not appreciate Netanyahu's excessive self-confidence,
and decided to make him sweat a little. So, instead of settling for a
calming Syrian message, the Americans added the sentence according to
which " Syria reserves every option".
This was revealed during a conversation Nader had with a senior
Syrian official in Damascus. Nader, who publishes a paper on Middle
East affairs in Washington, is friends with [Netanyahu's adviser] Dore
Gold. He arrived in Israel in the second half of September and, on the
night of Yom Kippur, met Netanyahu, Gold and other senior officials in
Jerusalem. From Jerusalem, Nader went to Jordan and then to Syria.
The Syrians asked him why Netanyahu's response to their message had
been so negative. When Nader briefed them about the content of the
message, as relayed through the Americans, the Syrians were ready to
explode. "They have fooled the Israelis. The Americans are playing a
double game," Ambassador Mu'allim said.
When the Syrians asked the Americans to clarify the story, they
received a funny answer: "Why should you care," a senior US source
told the Syrian ambassador. "This is for your own good. It would not
hurt Netanyahu to worry a little." Mu'allim could not hide his rage. "
This is a sensitive situation. We are not negotiating. I cannot
understand how you allow yourselves to do such things." His American
interlocutor could not calm him.
After this incident, Mu'allim suggested to his superiors - Foreign
Minister Faruq al-Shar'a and President Asad - to stop using the US
channel to relay messages to Israel. "Under these circumstances, we
cannot trust the United States. There is no point in using the
American channel. We have to double-check every piece of information
we receive through them."
George Nader secretly returned to Jerusalem last week, where he
again met Netanyahu and his aides, who found it hard to stomach the
story about the "fabricated" message. In the end, they decided to do
nothing. Relations with the United States, particularly at this time,
are very sensitive and important, but it is hard to assume that future
messages relayed by the Americans will be taken at face value, without
being examined...
Djerejian's mission followed Nader's. He arrived here at the
beginning of October and met Netanyahu, Gold, and Foreign Ministry
Director-General Eytan Bentzur. Djerejian was given an Israeli offer
to resume negotiations, and went to Damascus where he met Asad, Shar'
a and Chief of Staff Hikmat al-Shihabi. Besides bringing detailed
answers to the Israeli offers, Djerejian also relayed his personal
impressions: Asad is in good shape, seems relaxed, healthy and in a
good mood. His key associates are Chief of Staff Shihabi and,
sometimes, Ambassador Mu'allim. Vice-President Mustafa Talas has no
powers, nor Asad's confidence, Djerejian said.
The Israeli offer Djerejian relayed was:
1. The Lebanon problem will be solved to Syria's satisfaction while
preserving its influence there.
2. Strategic cooperation between Syria and Israel as part of a
peace contract. This will preserve Syria's hegemony, mainly vis-a-vis
Turkey, in the regional power constellation.
3. Israel will help Syria in Washington on ties with the
administration and removing it from the list of pro-terror states.
4. Territorial compromise on the Golan.
Asad and his men considered the offer seriously. "I agree there are
positive things here," he said after Djerejian pressed him. "But I
must go back to the Golan issue. Netanyahu must understand that he has
no chance of making peace with us without getting off all Syrian
territory. Full stop."
Faruq al-Shar'a stressed that agreements had been made with Rabin
and Peres: "We have a clear agreement about a withdrawal from the
Golan to the 4th June 1967 lines. Why should we let go of what we
already have?" ...
[Ben Kaspit's abbreviated report on the above story on pages 1and 2
of the news section of the 25th October 'Maariv' adds: "Political
sources at the Prime Minister's Office last week denied that Israel
has any problem with Washington on this affair. A Jerusalem source
said this may be a Syrian attempt to drive a wedge between Israel and
the United States. US embassy spokesman Richard Scorza totally denied
the report: "This is an absolute lie, a misrepresentation of the
facts." ]
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
October 23, 1996
"Israeli army sources say chances of war with Syria 'no longer slim'"
(Text of report by Israel radio on 22nd October)
Changes in the Syrian military deployment are continuing. The
chances of war with Syria are no longer slim. Assessments submitted to
the political echelon say there is no information about an imminent
war, but the Syrians are talking about a military option. They are
preparing and training for such a war and will decide whether to use
the military option according to circumstances. The Syrians expect
political developments in the next few months and are demanding that
the political process continue from the point at which it was
suspended by the Labour government before the recent elections.
If we reach a stalemate, [Syrian President Hafiz] al-Asad's
conclusion will be that a military move must be launched while
utilizing the element of surprise - this, in order to attain a
political achievement. The Syrian military build-up ripened this
summer. The Syrian military deployment in Lebanon and east of Mount
Hermon is not a new thing. Senior IDF [ Israel Defence Forces]
officers express concern despite the allaying messages being relayed.
The officers emphasize that the Syrian army is deployed in an
emergency military layout. The officers say we are playing at
brinkmanship. A decision must be made either to enter negotiations or
to prepare for a military option - this, in order to avoid an
unpleasant surprise.
A security source said Asad has no intention of waiting four years
to hold negotiations. He will carry out a move that will force the
sides to revive the process. In the Syrian military movements the
Syrian president is sending a message to Israel. The Syrian signals
are worrying. If there is no political progress Asad will choose the
military option. The senior army officers reiterate that Asad may
surprise us. His entire move is well-planned. Until half a year ago it
was clear he was heading towards a peace process. Asad will do
everything to resume the negotiations.
IDF intelligence sources have relayed messages in this spirit to
the political echelon. The IDF is continuing to follow the Syrian army
activity.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
October 23, 1996
"'Senior' Syrian source warns country ready for war with Israel"
(Text of studio discussion between presenter
Ea'aqov Eylon and Eldad Beck of Israel TV on 21st October)
[Eylon] We start the news with what our correspondent Eldad Beck
heard in Damascus. A high-level Syrian source said that Syria is ready
for war and is waiting to see whether Israel will change its positions
through US pressure after the US presidential elections.
Good evening, Eldad. You returned to Israel this morning with
French President Jacques Chirac's entourage. What did you hear in
Damascus?
[Beck] A senior source in the Syrian leadership said in a private
talk on Saturday night that Syria is not interested in war with
Israel, but that if the political deadlock continues after the US
elections, then Syria would be prepared for war against Israel. The
Syrian forces are already in full defensive layout in case there is
war. Syria is aware that war against Israel will take a heavy toll on
it, but that both sides will have many fatalities.
[Eylon] It must be stressed that we are talking about a most senior
Syrian source. It appears that this is a message both for America and
Israel.
[Beck] Definitely. The Syrians have great expectations from the US
administration, which promised them that following the elections it
will exert very heavy pressure on the Netanyahu government to get it
to honour the agreements reached by the previous Labour government at
Wye Plantation. The Syrians claim that in those discussions, detailed
agreements were reached on a timetable for Israeli withdrawal and
security arrangements.
For Israel, the message from the Syrian source is unequivocal: to
cease verbal and real provocations over the issue of sovereignty over
the Golan Heights.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Agence France Presse
October 21, 1996
"US warned Israel of risk of conflict with Syria: report"
The United States has warned Israel that the deadlock in peace
talks with Damascus could lead to military conflict with Syria, the
Haaretz newspaper reported Monday.
The newspaper said US Secretary of State Warren Christopher gave
the warning during a September 16 meeting with Israel's ambassador in
Washington, Eliyahu Ben-Elissar.
Christopher also read the Israeli envoy a letter sent by Syrian
President Hafez al-Assad to US President Bill Clinton warning that
"all options will be open" if there is no movement on the Israeli-
Syrian track in the next few weeks, Haaretz said.
When asked by Ben-Elissar why Washington had not protested to Assad
over the threatening statement, Christopher said: "In the Middle East,
you either advance towards peace or you deteriorate," the newspaper
reported.
The Haaretz report came a day after Prime Minister Benajmin
Netanyahu called on Syria to resume peace negotiations and defuse
mounting tension between the two neighbours.
" Syria must understand that an escalation is not in the interests
of either country, and so it preferable to return to the negotiating
table," Netanyahu told reporters Sunday during a visit to the army's
central command headquarters near Jerusalem.
"We are closely following the situation in Syria and are taking
into account the possibility that the Syrians have intentions contrary
to our own," the prime minister added.
He was referring to Syrian troop redeployments in Lebanon and near
the northern tip of the Golan Heights, which Israeli military
officials have interpreted as a hostile gesture.
Israel responded by reinforcing its military presence in the
Golan, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war.
The Israeli army has demanded a 300-million-dollar budget increase
in next year's defence budget on the grounds of the increased threat
of war with Syria, the Yediot Aharonot newspaper reported Sunday.
Israeli-Syrian negotiations have been frozen since February, when
they were suspended by Israel's previous Labor government amid a rash
of Islamic suicide bombings in Israel.
Since coming to office in June, Netanyahu has refused Syrian
demands they be resumed where they had left off with the Labor
government -- with an agreement in principle linking a peace treaty to
an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense News
September 23, 1996 / September 29, 1996
"Limited U.S. Action May Boost Iraqi Biological Threat"
By PHILIP FINNEGAN
The limited military action taken by the United States against Iraq
could make Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein more willing to use his
stockpiles of biological weapons, which are abundant and potent enough
to easily wipe out Kuwait or Middle Eastern and U.S. cities, according
to some experts.
"This may have made the use of biological weapons more probable,"
said David Kay, the former chief nuclear inspector for the United
Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM). "You want Saddam Hussein
to be deathly afraid of you. But there is a danger now that Saddam
will think he can get away with anything."
Following the Aug. 31 Iraqi attack on Irbil in Kurdistan, the
United States responded by expanding the southern no-fly zone from the
32nd to the 33rd parallel and hitting Iraqi air defense sites with 44
cruise missiles over two days.
"This relatively weak response -- and not bringing up weapons
inspections [to find and destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction] -
- encourages Saddam to do more horrible things," Laurie Mylroie, an
analyst at the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute,
said Sept. 19. That includes the possible use of biological weapons
for military or terrorist actions in the Persian Gulf or the United
States, she said.
Other experts suggest Saddam's survival would need to be at stake
before he would order the use of biological weapons. "Unless he is
really desperate, he won't do it," said Amatzia Baram, a professor at
Haifa University and Israel's leading expert on Iraq.
Even with a terrorist action, "the suspicion would automatically
fall on him." Retaliation from the United States or Israel, would be
devastating, Baram said Sept. 20.
Regardless of any opinion about their potential use, Iraq has
stockpiles of biological weapons and the capability to use them, said
Kay, now a vice president at Science Applications International
Corp.'s McLean, Va., headquarters.
Before the 1991 Persian Gulf war, Iraq had mounted a massive
development effort that created what was probably the second largest
biological weapons program in the world behind that of the former
Soviet Union, Kay said.
Iraq had missiles, bombs and airplanes equipped to dispense deadly
biological agents. It even tested remotely piloted vehicles as a way
of disseminating the agents.
Although the biological agents that had been put into weapons
likely were destroyed by the Iraqis, and almost all of its missiles
also were destroyed by Iraq and U.N. inspectors, a threat from a
limited missile stockpile remains.
UNSCOM inspectors are concerned Iraqi officials still may not have
accounted for about 12 Scud launchers, Rolf Ekeus, UNSCOM's executive
chairman, said in a Sept. 17 interview. Before the war, Iraq had 25
Al-Hussein extended-range Scud missiles equipped with biological
weapons.
UNSCOM is charged with dismantling Iraq's biological, chemical,
nuclear and missile programs.
The concern now is that Saddam could use relatively low-technology
methods to mount a deadly biological attack. Among the scenarios of
most concern to experts, based on Saddam's stockpiles and level of
technical expertise, are:
* Trucks driving along Iraq's border with Kuwait to spray
biological agents during a period of high winds, wiping out much of
the Kuwaiti population.
* Small dhows in the Persian Gulf using agricultural sprayers to
hit U.S. allies or U.S. military facilities.
* A car driving along the George Washington Parkway in Washington
spraying anthrax spores or another biological agent from its exhaust
pipe. Along the road is CIA headquarters and the Pentagon on one side
and the White House on the other.
* Biological agents are sprayed from an aerosol can into a major
city's subway, with the trains moving them through the tunnels.
In each case, it would take time for the symptoms to appear. For
example, two days are needed for the results of an anthrax attack to
show.
It would be almost impossible for the United States to prove that
it was Iraq and not another country that had carried out the attack,
Kay said.
There is even a danger a country like Iran might mount an attack
with a strain of anthrax known to have been developed by Iraq,
according to another biological weapons expert.
Iraq still has not adequately accounted for massive stockpiles of
biological weapons, according to UNSCOM. Figures revealed by the
Iraqi government show that before the 1991 gulf war, it had produced
19,000 liters of botulinum, 8,500 liters of anthrax and 2,500 of
aflatoxin.
Those production figures seem suspiciously low, Ekeus said.
It is the anthrax that is of particular concern, Ekeus said. If
anthrax is dried, it can be stored for decades. A mere 4 kilograms
could kill the population of Washington, Kay said.
The 2,000 liters of anthrax that was not filled in weapons and
still could be available in Iraqi stockpiles would be enough to kill
45 million to 60 million people.
The danger goes beyond unaccounted-for Iraqi stockpiles. Despite
U.N. efforts to dismantle Iraq's biological weapon capabilities,
"they keep a production capability that can be reactivated if we leave
the country," Ekeus said.
That production capability could be reconstituted in eight to 12
weeks, according to an Aug. 26 study by Anthony Cordesman, titled
"Iraqi Military Forces in the Year 2000."