ARMAGEDDON ALERT
By J. Adams
September 13th, 1997
The *Spirit Of Truth* Page
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/
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OPENING NEWS QUOTES FROM
ARTICLES BELOW:
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Syria has begun preparations for a possible surprise
attack on Israel using missiles armed with chemical
warheads, the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot reported Friday.
FROM:
Agence France Presse
September 12, 1997 12:07 GMT
"Syria preparing option of surprise
chemical attack on Israel: report"
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It was confirmed in a recent statement by Lt. Gen.
Amnon Shahak, Israel's chief of staff, who painted a grim
scenario similar to the surprise Syrian attack over the
Golan Heights in 1973. This time, he indicated, such a
thrust would be accompanied by missile attacks.
"We have a number of sensors and we know that not only
the Syrian leaders are talking about the possibility of war
with Israel," he told Israeli journalists. "What we know is
that they are talking about a surprise attack."
FROM:
The Washington Times
July 5, 1997, Saturday, Final Edition
"Syrian moves worry Israelis;
Buildup includes troops, missiles"
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In June, Uzi Arad, Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser, was
telling the leaders of the powerful American-Israeli lobby
group AIPAC that they should do everything possible to
resist congressional calls for a cut in US financial
assistance to Israel, because Israel was likely to take
"decisive and fateful decisions" that would "place Israel in
a delicate security situation".
FROM:
The Independent (London)
August 3, 1997, Sunday
"Ticking towards disaster;
The West is ignoring all the signs that the
Middle East is about to explode, says Robert Fisk"
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Israel could try to broaden the conflict (in Southern
Lebanon) to include Syria. "Any new action against Lebanon
would not just target the Lebanese or Hizbollah but also
Syrian forces, to try to change the whole Lebanese political
equation and separate Syria from Lebanon" in order to
"impose a separate treaty on Lebanon" as Israel tried and
failed to do in the early 1980s, at the height of the
Lebanese civil war.
FROM:
Financial Times (London)
September 13, 1997, Saturday
"Hizbollah chief expects new round of proxy war"
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Asked if he would send suicide bombers against
Israel - the tactic first used by Hizbollah to drive US and
French forces out of Lebanon and Israel back to the security
zone after its 1982 invasion - Sheikh Nasrallah said: "If
they start a new incursion, or a new bombardment, we will
resort to any measure, to any action required to defend
Lebanon and defend ourselves."
FROM:
Financial Times (London)
September 13, 1997, Saturday
"Hizbollah chief expects new round of proxy war"
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ARMAGEDDON ALERT
By J. Adams
September 13th, 1997
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The sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river
Euphrates, and its water was dried up to prepare the way for
the kings of the East. Then I saw three evil spirits that
looked like frogs; they came out of the mouth of the dragon,
out of the mouth of the beast and out of the mouth of the
false prophet. They are spirits of demons performing
miraculous signs, and they go out to the kings of the whole
world, to gather them for battle on the great day of God Almighty.
"Behold, I come like a thief! Blessed is he who stays
awake and keeps his clothes with him, so that he may not go
naked and be shamefully exposed."
The they gathered the kings together to the place that
in Hebrew is called Armageddon.
16 Revelation 12-16
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NOTE: Armageddon is today known as Megiddo-
a small town in northern Israel that lies in
the direct path of any southward Syrian invasion
into modern-day Israel.
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Six-and-a-half years ago, in early-February 1991 when the Gulf War
was underway, I had a mysterious vision of an NBC Special Report about
a chemical SCUD missile attack taking place against Haifa, Israel.
About a week after this, a friend and I heard an air-raid siren and
nuclear explosion upon reading the Seventh Seal prophecy from the
Bible's Book of Revelation (see "The Truth" article at-
http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/j03.html ).
Ever since those strange experiences in February of 1991, I have
been seeking to explain what they meant. Is a war in the Middle East
going to eventually erupt that will be followed by a global nuclear
holocaust?
I have concluded the answer is a tragic yes and, what's more, the
coming holocaust is something that is fully preventable.
Unfortunately, however, this world is apparently not going to be saved
because people aren't interested in facing the truth and diverting our
civilization from self-destruction.
At the current juncture, the "false" peace in the Middle East is
ostensibly breaking down and it appears that war may soon erupt in the
region. It looks as if the initial, organized military action that
will ignite a new Arab-Israeli conflict may be carried-out by Israel,
possibly in the new Palestianian self-ruled areas, possibly in
southern Lebanon or possibly in both.
As will become clear from reading the news articles below, Syria
has been preparing to unleash a surprise attack against Israel that
could begin with a chemical SCUD missile attack on the Jewish State-
this being what I may have already foreseen. In order to create a
pretext for this attack, Israel is being provoked into military action
in Southern Lebanon and possible the Palestinian-ruled territories as
well. In response to such Israeli action, or maybe even without it, I
expect the rest of the world will soon see reports of a chemical SCUD
missile attack on Haifa and probably other Israeli cities just like I
witnessed six-and-a-half years ago.
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Agence France Presse
September 11, 1997 11:09 GMT
"Iraq calls for jihad against Israel, slams US peace efforts"
Iraq urged Arab states on Thursday to mount a jihad, or Moslem
holy war, against Israel and to reject a US-sponsored peace process
which it says is biased toward the Jewish state.
"All the signs and historical facts show that the Arabs have no
choice but to pursue the jihad against the (Israeli) occupier," said
Ath-Thawra, organ of the ruling Baath Party.
It said US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's maiden tour of
the Middle East that started in Israel on Wednesday was aimed solely
at "guaranteeing the security of the (Israeli) aggressor which
practises terrorism."
The peace process sponsored by Washington is "totally partial"
toward Israel, it charged, adding that the US administration would
"never accept the slightest pressure on the Zionist entity."
It slammed "Arab heads of state who think they can settle matters
by negotiating with the enemy."
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BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
September 13, 1997, Saturday
"Labour leader Baraq says Syria 'will not dare'
launch chemical attack"
Source: Voice of Israel, Jerusalem, in Hebrew 0500 gmt 12 Sep 97
Text of report by Israel radio on 12th September
Labour leader Ehud Baraq believes Syria will not dare launch the
missiles it has fitted with chemical warheads at Israel. In Baraq's
view, the Syrians regard that as a poor man's response to their
assessment that Israel has nuclear weapons. Baraq's remarks were made
on Israel radio in response to today's 'Yediot Aharonot'report that
Syria is capable of launching dozens of missiles with chemical
warheads in a surprise attack.
On Mrs Albright's visit, Baraq said Labour is concerned about the
deadlock and the fear that the situation is deteriorating into a
superfluous war. The problem is the path taken by the Netanyahu's
government, Baraq said.
The prime minister's spokesman voiced regret that Baraq ignored the
Palestinians' responsibility for the deadlock, thereby not helping the
government to confront terrorism.
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Agence France Presse
September 12, 1997 12:07 GMT
"Syria preparing option of surprise
chemical attack on Israel: report"
Syria has begun preparations for a possible surprise attack on
Israel using missiles armed with chemical warheads, the Israeli
newspaper Yediot Ahronot reported Friday.
In a report that coincided with US Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright's scheduled departure from Israel for Damascus, the newspaper
published a Russian satellite photo purportedly showing an array of
SCUD missile launch sites near the city of Hama.
Edward Howe, an arms expert with the British defense weekly Jane's,
told the newspaper the satellite photo is proof that Syria has put in
place the means to launch a surprise missile attack on Israel that
could involve "dozens" of chemical warheads.
Israeli military officials in recent months have expressed mounting
concern over Syria's efforts to develop new forms of chemical weapons,
including a lethal kind of nerve gas.
But a former commander of the Israeli air force, Avihu Binun, told
Israel radio Friday that the Yediot report "contains nothing new" and
that Syria "would not dare fire missiles at Israel."
Ehud Barak, the leader of the opposition Labor Part and a former
army chief of staff, agreed.
"Syria wouldn't risk a surprise chemical attack against Israel
because they are afraid of the nuclear weapons they think we hold," he
said.
Israel has never publicly admitted having a nuclear arsenal, but
foreign military experts believe the Jewish state had between 100 and
200 nuclear warheads which could be placed on the army's Jericho
medium and long-range missiles.
Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations have been on hold since February
1996.
Albright and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed ways of
renewing the Syrian track of the peace process late Thursday but
neither made any public declarations about their talks.
The US secretary of state was scheduled to meet Syrian President
Hafez al-Assad late Friday in Damascus.
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Financial Times (London)
September 13, 1997, Saturday
"Hizbollah chief expects new round of proxy war"
By David Gardner in Beirut
Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia Islamist movement fighting Israeli
occupation of south Lebanon, is bracing itself for reprisals from
Israel after the ambush last week of an elite Israeli commando unit
deep inside Lebanese territory which left 12 Israelis dead.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's leader, said he was expecting
another Israeli aggression at any time, in spite of US and
international mediation to prevent the low-intensity war in south
Lebanon from escalating into a new trial of strength between Israel
and Syria, which controls Lebanon and licenses Hizbollah attacks.
Interviewed at a safe-house in the Hizbollah stronghold of Beirut's
teeming southern suburbs, Sheikh Nasrallah said: "I believe Israelâ
will be obliged to respond to the loss of morale in their armed
forces, and the punctures we have made in their aura of
invincibility."
Israel has lost 32 elite troops so far this year in Lebanon, on top
of 73 killed in February when two helicopters collided on their way to
the self-proclaimed "security zone" it maintains in the south.
The security zone, encompassing 12 per cent of Lebanon, is more
tinder-box than buffer, providing the arena for a proxy war between
Israel and Syria, which has 40,000 troops in Lebanon. Hizbollah
pressure on the zone serves Syria as a reminder to Israel that there
will be no peace in the region without the return to Syria of the
Golan Heights, captured by Israel in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's hardline prime minister, has ruled out
returning the Golan, although his Labour predecessors had agreed to
hand back the strategic plateau in exchange for full peace with Syria.
Madeleine Albright, the US secretary of state, on her first peace
mission to the Middle East, was last night due to meet Syrian
President Hafez al-Assad to explore ways of reviving negotiations.
Sheikh Nasrallah, himself just back from consultations in Damascus,
argues that the US has "given the green light to the Israelis" to
attack in Lebanon, just as they did in April last year when Israel
bombarded the country from land, air and sea for 17 days, killing over
200 civilians. But, he says, Israel has "limited options". The black-
turbaned Hizbollah chief lists five.
"They may try to kill or abduct our leaders - but they will always
do that any time they have the opportunity." Sheikh Nasrallah's
predecessor as Hizbollah secretary general, Sheikh Abbas Musawi, was
killed with his family in 1992 in an Israeli helicopter ambush.
"There are no longer any Hizbollah training camps for them to
attack," the Islamist sheikh says, adding with a hint of satisfaction
that "it will be a high-risk adventure for them to launch more
commando raids" beyond the security zone in an attempt to stop
Hizbollah infiltration.
Israel could, he says, launch a new bombardment from the air, which
would primarily hit civilians, and "this would not go unpunished".
Finally, he said, Israel could try to broaden the conflict to
include Syria. "Any new action against Lebanon would not just target
the Lebanese or Hizbollah but also Syrian forces, to try to change the
whole Lebanese political equation and separate Syria from Lebanon" in
order to "impose a separate treaty on Lebanon" as Israel tried and
failed to do in the early 1980s, at the height of the Lebanese civil
war.
Sheikh Nasrallah judged the latter option to be ill-advised since,
as Mrs Albright's visit to the region this week showed, "the top
priority for America and Israel at the moment is the Palestinian
issue".
But he repeated the remarks he made during the April 1996
bombardment, that "the Israelis control the skies, but we control the
ground." Asked if he would send suicide bombers against Israel - the
tactic first used by Hizbollah to drive US and French forces out of
Lebanon and Israel back to the security zone after its 1982 invasion -
Sheikh Nasrallah said: "If they start a new incursion, or a new
bombardment, we will resort to any measure, to any action required to
defend Lebanon and defend ourselves."
But the Hizbollah leader denied that his organisation had anything
to do with the recent suicide attacks in Jerusalem which killed 20
Israelis, as Yassir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, has suggested. "My
direct answer to your direct question is No," Sheikh Nasrallah said.
"Arafat has to a certain extent lost his mental balance. He is trying
to save his own skin by pointing the finger at Palestinians outside
Israel and at Hizbollah. He should produce evidence for these claims."
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Financial Times (London)
September 12, 1997, Friday
"US steps in to halt further Lebanon fighting"
By David Gardner in Beirut
The US has intervened to stop further escalation in the fighting in
southern Lebanon between Israeli occupation forces and Lebanese
Islamist guerrillas, according to Lebanese officials.
The mediation effort is a response to fears that Israel would
retaliate heavily against Lebanon and its Syrian overlord after losing
12 elite commandos in a bungled raid in southern Lebanon last Friday.
It is understood that Lebanon, Israel and Syria have been in touch
through the US to calm down the last active Arab-Israeli war front.
The intervention comes after Israel suffered six weeks of mounting
losses in its attempts to defend the "security zone" it occupies in
south Lebanon against the Syrian-licensed Hizbollah, the Shi'a Moslem
fundamentalist militia recognised in Lebanon as a national resistance
movement.
So far this year, 32 Israeli soldiers have died in Lebanon, while a
further 73 were killed in February when their helicopters collided en
route to an operation similar to last week's botched attack. Higher
Israeli casualties follow the near collapse of the mercenary South
Lebanon Army that Israel uses to defend the security zone. This has
compromised its intelligence and pushed Israeli troops to the front-
line and deeper into Lebanon to stop Hizbollah infiltration, bringing
Israel into conflict with other Shi'a forces and the Lebanese army.
In April last year, Israel bombarded south Lebanon and south Beirut
for 17 days in a fruitless attempt to force Lebanon and Syria to rein
in Hizbollah, killing more than 200 civilians and damaging
infrastructure recently replaced after Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war.
Fears of a new large-scale incursion had risen after last Friday's
disastrous Israeli raid.
So far, however, south Lebanon has gone quiet, and Benjamin
Netanyahu, Israel's hardline prime minister, is under pressure from
across the political spectrum to pull out of Lebanon.
Rafiq al-Hariri, Lebanon's prime minister, dismissed Israeli
agonising over withdrawal as "an internal political game". He said: "I
don't think they are serious. Every time they have a disaster they
talk about withdrawal." He warned that peace and security were
indivisible and that Israel would not obtain security for its people
without returning all occupied Arab land. "They are trying to divide
the undivideable," Mr Hariri said, in a way "which will not guarantee
the security of anyone".
Although he would not confirm behind-the-scenes mediation by Mrs
Albright, when asked whether he now expected heavy Israeli reprisals,
Mr Hariri said: "I have reason to believe No."
The prime minister, who with Syrian backing has for the past five
years been the force behind Lebanon's attempts to rebuild itself into
the thriving financial and services entrepot it was before the civil
war, said he believed the recent fighting was an opportunity for
"everyone to come back to the table" and "continue the negotiations".
He reiterated the word "continue" to reflect Syria's demands that
its negotiations with Israel on the return of the Golan Heights -
captured by Israel in the 1967 six day war - should resume where they
broke off shortly before Mr Netanyahu's election victory. Those talks
had reached the point where Yitzhak Rabin, the former Israeli premier,
had agreed to return the Golan in exchange for full peace.
Amid persistent reports of renewed Israeli-Syrian talks at asecret
location in Europe - believed to be Geneva - Mr Hariri said a peace
deal involving Syria, Lebanon and Israel "can be agreed in three
months, but only if Israel wants it".
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The Washington Times
July 5, 1997, Saturday, Final Edition
"Syrian moves worry Israelis;
Buildup includes troops, missiles"
By Andrew Borowiec
NICOSIA, Cyprus - Concentrations of Syrian troops at strategic
points near Israel are compounding the tension caused by the paralyzed
peace process and the resulting rioting in Israeli-held parts of the
West Bank.
The Syrian moves, reported by Western and Arab diplomats, are said
to be accompanied by an intensified buildup of Syria's offensive
missiles targeting densely populated areas of Israel.
Talks at solving the dispute between Israel and Syria have been
stalled since February 1996. The election of conservative Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in May 1996 seems to have precluded
further contacts in the foreseeable future.
Syria has been demanding unconditional Israeli withdrawal from the
Golan Heights, seized by Israel in 1967 and considered crucial to the
Jewish state's defenses. After the 1973 war in which Syria and Egypt
simultaneously attacked Israel on two distant fronts, Israel returned
a slice of the Golan but kept the area dominating its heavily
populated Galilee valley.
Although Israel maintains definite air and technical superiority
over Syria, the possibility of conflict is taken seriously.
It was confirmed in a recent statement by Lt. Gen. Amnon Shahak,
Israel's chief of staff, who painted a grim scenario similar to the
surprise Syrian attack over the Golan Heights in 1973. This time, he
indicated, such a thrust would be accompanied by missile attacks.
"We have a number of sensors and we know that not only the Syrianâ
leaders are talking about the possibility of war with Israel, " he
told Israeli journalists. "What we know is that they are talking about
a surprise attack. "
According to Western reports, Syria has redeployed some of its
elite units closer to the border.
This includes the 14th Special Forces Division now poised in the
foothills of Mount Hermon, and the 51st Division, moved east of
Lebanon's Syrian-controlled Bekaa Valley. In the Golan Heights, a
narrow strip of land partly held by Israel, Syria has an estimated
three to four army divisions.
Damascus has described the deployment as defensive, and some
diplomats are playing down the possibility of a new conflict, mainly
because the collapse of the Soviet Union has deprived Syria of its
major source of weapons.
Looking for other sources of weapons has turned out to be costly
and difficult. Apparently because of strong U.S. pressure, Syria has
been unable to purchase a highly sophisticated Tiger fire-control
system from South Africa.
Israeli forces have been steadily beefed up by state-of-the-art
U.S. weapons, confirming them as the most modern and technically
superior fighting machine in the region. Some diplomats say Israel
has been receiving more than the officially earmarked $1.8 billion a
year in military subsidies.
According to a French diplomatic report weighing the prospect of
renewed fighting between Israel and Syria, a conflict could be
triggered if Yasser Arafat resorted to force or if his Palestinian
Authority collapsed and Israel reoccupied the self-ruled areas.
Such a blueprint apparently exists and recently the Israelis
conducted maneuvers in the West Bank to test its feasibility.
While the Israeli air force is equipped to maintain round-the-
clock fighting capability in the event of conflict with Syria, Israel
is seriously concerned about Syria's missile development program.
The Syrian program was heightened, according to some Israeli
reports, by Israel's plans to deploy an anti-missile system known as
Arrow 2, which would cover about 85 percent of populated areas. But
some Western sources say Syria has been unable to develop effective
chemical and bacteriological weapons.
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The Independent (London)
August 3, 1997, Sunday
"Ticking towards disaster;
The West is ignoring all the signs that the
Middle East is about to explode, says Robert Fisk"
By Robert Fisk
The "peace process" is long dead. A war is not far away. Almost
anyone in the Middle East will tell you this. Almost no one in the
United States or Europe believes it. They talk - as the Secretary of
State, Madeleine Albright, did on Friday - of a "low point" in the
peace process, as if the whole flawed Oslo agreement was not already
buried. All the evidence that a bloody explosion is imminent in the
Middle East, of which last week's slaughter in Jerusalem was merely
one more sign, is wilfully ignored.
For months now, Benjamin Netanyahu and his bickering cabinet have
been discussing a reinvasion of Palestinian-held territory. In June,
Uzi Arad, Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser, was telling the leaders
of the powerful American-Israeli lobby group AIPAC that they should do
everything possible to resist congressional calls for a cut in US
financial assistance to Israel, because Israel was likely to take
"decisive and fateful decisions" that would "place Israel in a
delicate security situation". No explanation was given as to what
these "fateful" decisions would be, nor why they would place Israel in
so "delicate" a state of security. This extraordinary statement was
ignored by the press - except by the Israeli newspaper Maariv.
At almost the same time - although Mr Arad did not reveal this -
the Israeli army was secretly simulating a reinvasion of all the West
Bank towns and cities that the Israeli government had given back to
the Palestinians. Netanyahu's aides were present at this gloomy
exercise which proved that hundreds of lives would be lost in such an
operation. They concluded, according to David Horowitz of the
Jerusalem Report, that the wholesale retaking of cities like Ramallah
and Hebron was not realistic. They were devising "alternative
strategies" for the eventuality of a full-scale Israeli-Palestinian
confrontation.
Yet still, incredibly, we fail to read the signs. Take the case of
Yasser Arafat. Before he was weak enough to make peace with Israel -
when he was still one of the world's most wanted "terrorists" - Israel
regularly compared him to Hitler. He was corrupt. He believed in using
violence for political ends. He was a petty tyrant to his own people,
eliminating internal enemies and cynically using a score of
Palestinian secret police organisations against each other.
Then came Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, Arafat's absurd
support for Baghdad, his political and financial bankruptcy and - with
the hopelessly flawed Oslo agreement - peace with the enemy he had
always sworn to destroy. Overnight, princes, kings and presidents,
and the ever compliant Western media, discovered that Arafat, far from
being a super-terrorist, was a super-statesman. Israel's seal of
approval - a very cynical seal, since Israel needed a weak Palestinian
leader, put the West into overdrive. Arafat was a man with whom one
could do business, the true leader of his people, a future president
of a Palestinian state.
There was no end to this nonsense. Those of us who wrote that Oslo
was a disaster, that Arafat had mortgaged his house - or "sold it
twice over", as the Egyptian historian Mohamed Heikal put it to me on
the day it was revealed - were vilified as spoilers of peace, as
supporters of "terrorism" or, slanderous though the accusation was,
"anti-Semitic". When I pointed out that Oslo provided no international
guarantees, that Arafat was a deeply corrupted, untrustworthy man,
that Israel had made no written commitments to halt settlement-
building or share Jerusalem as a capital with the Palestinians, or
leave all of the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip, I was informed
that Israel had every intention of doing so.
When I suggested that Oslo allowed Israel to renegotiate UN
Security Council Resolution 242 - calling for a total withdrawal from
all occupied land in return for total security, the basis of the
original 1991 US-sponsored Madrid peace conference - I was informed
that trust rather than written agreements would secure peace.
But in the Middle East over the past few days, a remarkable
transformation has taken place. Arafat is now being accused of giving
the green light to "terror". We are asked to recall the large number
of prisoners who have been tortured or murdered in the jails of the
Palestinian authority. And - horror of horrors - we are told he is
corrupt. Palestinian legislators have demanded the sacking of his
entire cabinet for squandering 40 per cent of the authority's
financial income; all but two ministers offered their resignation.
What is happening is perfectly clear: Arafat is being rebestialised.
He is being returned to pariah status. In preparation for what?
The United States, needless to say, is applying pressure on Arafat
to "step up the war on terror" - a pressure that was not applied to
the Israelis when they decided to go ahead with their new settlement
on occupied land at Jebel Abu Ghoneim (Har Homa), which was not
applied to the Israelis after the opening of the Jerusalem tunnel
whose funding was provided by Irving Moskovitz (part of whose fortune
was made with American bingo parlours). Nor was American pressure
applied when Israel began to deprive Palestinians of their Jerusalem
residency rights on the grounds that - although their families have
lived there for generations - they have spent too many years outside
the country. Another 120,000 Jerusalem Palestinians now face losing
those same rights because they live on the outskirts of the city.
But after the massacre of Israelis in Jerusalem last week - a
frightful act that was as wicked as it was inevitable - Arafat was
ordered to resume his role as chief Palestinian policeman. Forget for
a moment that every act of Palestinian "terrorism" is supposed to be
linked to Arafat while every act of Israeli "terrorism" - the Hebron
mosque slaughter or the murder of the Israeli prime minister, for
example - is supposed to be the work of lone, insane criminals. The
female settler who portrayed the Prophet Mohamed as a pig - which
immediately prompted Hamas's promise of revenge - may indeed have
acted alone. But if the settlements had been closed down, the
incident would never have occurred. What the suicide bombings did last
week was to refocus Western attention on the cruelty, rather than the
causes, of the violence.
Taher al-Adwan, editor of the Jordanian daily Al-Arab Al-Yom,
represented the Arab view bluntly last week. "The Israelis tear up
peace agreements," he wrote. "For withdrawal from the occupied
territories, they substitute aggressive settlement expansion. They
assault the holy places and insult Islam. Then above all this, they
demand security, stability and peace."
It is no satisfaction to realise that one's worst predictions are
swiftly being fulfilled. Only a madman does not want peace. But the
dishonesty built into the Oslo agreement and Washington's gutless and
uncritical response to all of Israel's actions have led the region to
the abyss. Dennis Ross's return to the Middle East this week is
surely more a gesture to disprove America's impotence than a serious
attempt to revive a "peace process" that the Middle East already
regards as dead.
And if the West Bank burns, do the Israelis believe that the
Hizbollah will call a truce north of the Israeli border? Syria, too,
is being accused once again by Israel of support for "world terror" -
and Israel has again refused to return the occupied Syrian Golan
Heights. So is Damascus also to be a target? Last week, President
Assad of Syria - after telling President Mubarak of Egypt that he sees
no immediate hope of peace - paid his first visit to Tehran for seven
years. He wanted to meet the new Iranian president but he took with
him a clutch of Syrian generals to discuss what Damascus called
"strategic relations" between the two countries. The Hizbollah's
weapons are shipped through Syria -from Iran.
As for the Palestinians, an ever-growing number believe that
Arafat's role is to be Israel's full-time policeman, to suppress,
crush and eliminate all Palestinian opposition groups so that Israel
can continue to dispossess Palestinians, so that Israeli settlements
can be built on occupied Arab land, and so Israel can withdraw
residence papers from Palestinians who have lived in Jerusalem for
generations and thus "Judaicise" Islam's third holiest city. By acting
as policeman - by ensuring there is no violent Palestinian response to
these acts - Arafat would, in effect, become the means by which Israel
can now tear up the peace treaty.
But he probably does not have the time. The West may wilfully
ignore the warnings but there is no excuse for Israelis or
Palestinians to do so. And there have been plenty of Israelis willing
- however vainly - to warn of what is to come. As long ago as April
the Israeli commentator Hemi Shalev wrote in Maariv that ". . .more
and more people, including those who should know, are starting to
believe that an enormous explosion is unavoidable. If the Americans do
not succeed in stopping the deterioration at the last moment, and if
the leaders do not come to their senses before it is too late, the
region will go up in flames and the historic act of conciliation will
sink in rivers of blood, both ours and theirs." Mr Shalev's analysis
was ignored.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Jerusalem Post
August 1, 1997, Friday
"Syria: We'll take Golan by force, if necessary"
By David Rudge
Syrian Chief of Staff Hikhmat Shihabi yesterday warned that his
country would take back the Golan Heights by force if it cannot do so
peacefully.
His comments in the Al-Ba'ath daily were made as President Hafez
Assad made a rare visit to Teheran to meet with Iranian leaders.
Shihabi was quoted in the official government newspaper as saying
that Syria is prepared in the event of war and would not be
intimidated if Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu moves towards
confrontation.
The newspaper interview, to mark the 52nd anniversary of the
establishment of the Syrian army, was seen by some observers as an
indication that Assad is considering a military option, especially in
light of his recent comments expressing pessimism over the peace
process.
Prof. Ze'ev Maoz, head of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies,
said that the continuing deadlock in the peace process has brought the
possibility of a military confrontation with Syria much closer for
Israel.
"The Syrian army has intensified its efforts on three levels. On
the conventional level, it has tried to improve its training and over
the past year, we have seen several major military exercises based on
offensive scenarios," he said.
"A second indication is the upgrading in terms of readiness and
improvements in Syria's missiles and non- conventional weapons.
Thirdly, they have also been trying to upgrade their outdated armor,
guidance systems, air force, and surface-to-air missiles."
Maoz said another indication Assad is considering a military
option is that key figures in the regime have been "persistently
trying to motivate people in the armed forces" to consider and accept
the idea.
"I believe that the situation on the ground is such that the
Syrians are capable of launching a surprise attack at any moment. The
question is whether there is a political decision and how much cost
they are willing to bear.
"In my opinion, every day that passes and every default of the
government on negotiations with Syria, coupled with the Knesset
decision last week (on the bill to strengthen the Golan Law), brings
the prospect of military confrontation closer," Maoz said.
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The Jerusalem Post
July 18, 1997, Friday
"Syria aims to settle old debts"
By Steve Rodan
Looking toward Russia as a comrade in arms-purchasing, Syria is
beefing up its military might, Steve Rodan reports
These days, Israeli military commanders face a conundrum as they
look toward their northern border.
The puzzle is Syria. On paper, the Syrian military is weak, far
weaker than when it launched the surprise attack in the 1973 Yom
Kippur War. The Syrians have fewer tanks, far fewer fighter-jets, an
aging air defense system and an outdated Soviet military doctrine.
That's why they're proceeding with what Israeli and Arab sources
agree is an ambitious program of rearmament. President Hafez Assad is
focusing on strengthening Syria's armored corps and amassing a missile
arsenal meant to launch a punishing attack on Israel and defend
against Israeli Air Force raids on Damascus.
"We are following developments," Air Force Commander Maj.-Gen.
Eitan Ben-Eliahu says. "We are examining the possibility that there
will be unexpected developments."
At the same time, the Syrians are busy training their forces.
Intelligence sources say Syrian troops last month completed a series
of maneuvers and exercises aimed at punching through Israeli defenses
on the Golan Heights. The sources say the success of the exercises
appears to give Assad the option of a limited war against Israel
although they don't see evidence of such a move taking place
imminently.
"Assad wants the Golan back during his lifetime," an intelligence
officer says. "He is willing to get it back peacefully, but he is
preparing a military option as well."
The Syrian exercises included the fortification of Scud B and Scud
C missile batteries against Israeli air attack. Scud missiles have
been transported from one fortified shelter to another in an apparent
attempt to outwit the enemy as to which shelters contain missiles and
which are empty.
Moreover, the Syrians have stepped up efforts to insert Syrian-
made chemical warheads in the estimated 800 Scud Bs and Cs they
possess. The Israel Air Force assesses that by the year 2000 Syria,
which by then will have full missile production capabilities, will
possess 1,500 surface-to-surface missiles. The focus is on trying to
install VX nerve gas in the missile warheads, an effort that Western
intelligence sources say has not yet fully succeeded. VX is regarded
as the most dangerous of all nerve gases and can remain in the area
for several days.
Syria, however, is getting help. Its main supplier is Russia, and
already Damascus and Moscow have renewed discussions over the purchase
of several models of advanced anti-aircraft missiles, including the
SA-12 surface-to-air missile, which Western defense sources say has
the capability to intercept enemy missiles.
The discussions are regarded as the most serious since Moscow cut
off its weapons supply to Syria in 1991 because it could not repay its
$ 11 billion debt to Moscow. Israeli military sources assess that
Syria badly needs an advanced Russian anti-aircraft system as a key
component of its stepped-up effort to launch a limited surprise attack
on the Golan Heights.
During his recent tour of the US, Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen.
Amnon Lipkin-Shahak warned his American counterparts that the Syrian
military is increasing its capabilities as well as preparing its
officers for war. " Syria is continuing to improve its capability to
execute a surprise attack against Israel, " he told the Knesset
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on June 24.
As IDF commanders see it, Syria, which has thousands of crack
commandos on the slopes of Mount Hermon, wants to launch an offensive
on the Golan Heights. Damascus might fire missiles at key Israeli
installations to prevent a quick call-up of the reserves. The SA-10
and SA-12 would be used to protect Damascus from any retaliatory
Israeli air strike.
The SA-12 is an improved version of the SA-10 or the S-300
surface-to-air missile, being sold to Cyprus. The SA- 10 is similar to
the US Patriot, used unsuccessfully to intercept Iraqi Scud missiles
fired toward Israel during the Gulf War, and Western defense sources
say the SA-12 is superior to the American system.
"Our information from both the Russians and our own contacts in
Moscow is that the SA-12 has interception capabilities of three to
four times that of the Patriot," a Western diplomat in Tel Aviv, an
expert in Russian arms, says. "This would be the most advanced anti-
aircraft technology in the Middle East."
Syria's defense system today is based on the SA-6 and SA-8, the
latter shipped to Syria in the early 1980s. Yiftah Shapir, a
researcher at Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies says these systems are outdated.
"They are very old in terms of technology," Shapir says. "Today's
technology can easily handle these systems. We are talking about
Syria trying to replace the SA-5 with the SA-10, which can deal with
the self-protection systems found in many modern jet-fighters."
According to Jane's Land Based Defense publication, the SA-10 has
a maximum effective range of 90 km. at a maximum altitude of 30 km.
The SA-12 has two models. The A model has a range of 75 km. and the B
has a range of 100 km., with a missile interception range of 40 km.
Syria has for years eyed the SA-10. During the March 14 visit of a
Russian military delegation to Damascus, headed by Gen. Mikhail
Timkin, senior vice president of Russia's state-owned arms export
Rosvoorouzhenie, the wish became possible. Defense sources say the
focus of the visit was to examine the possibility of upgrading Syria's
armor and air defense capabilities. The discussions continued during
the visit of another Russian military delegation in April.
The Russians want to expand their arms sales and Syria is the
likely choice. Sergey Kolchin, a Moscow-based economist, cites
Russian Defense Ministry figures that Russian arms exports have jumped
from $ 2.3 billion in 1992 to $ 3.4b. in 1996 and the ministry
assesses that the exports will soar to $ 10b. by 2000. The developing
markets include such countries as Syria, Iran, Egypt and the Gulf, as
well as the Far East and Latin America.
"Hopes are placed mainly in the Near East market where there exist
solid traditions of Russian arms purchasing," Kolchin writes in the
Moscow-based Rabochaya Tribuna. "Syria remains a traditional partner."
The Jaffee Center's Shapir agrees. "The Russians have no
ideological problems selling the SA-12 to the Syrians," he says. "They
can easily present this as a defensive weapon. The fact that they have
not done this is because of financial considerations. The main problem
is the old debt of Syria to Russia. The Syrians are not willing to
compromise on this."
The Syrians argue that they have long served Moscow as an ally and
provided the former Soviet Union with a port at Latakia along the
eastern Mediterranean, benefits that make up for the arms sales during
the 1970s and 1980s. Their argument has evoked empathy in the Russian
Foreign Ministry, which under the tutelage of Yevgeny Primakov is
lobbying to renew arms sales to Syria as a way for Russia to revive
its influence in the Middle East. Indeed, in April 1994, the Foreign
Ministry pushed through an agreement to renew weapons sales to
Damascus - an accord that has not yet been implemented by the Russian
arms industry.
The details are still unclear but Gulf Arab sources say the
problem of Syria's debt to Russia is slowly being resolved. Based on
two meetings of Syrian Vice President Abdul Halim Haddam with Gulf
leaders this year, the sources have told US officials that since 1992
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been steadily repaying the Syrian debt to
Moscow. They estimate that as much as two-thirds of the debt has been
repaid and the rest is being conditioned on renewing Russian arms
purchases to Syria.
Other Arab sources say Russia has informally agreed to forgive
two-thirds of the Syrian debt.
Last March, Iranian Defense Minister Mohammed Foruzandeh said Iran
will "participate in a project to modernize Syrian military equipment
as part of the defense agreement concluded between Damascus and
Teheran. The Syrian army has been upgrading its capability and
acquiring advanced technology."
Russian officials deny the reports that the Syrian debt is being
eliminated. Indeed, some of them appear resigned to the likelihood
that Damascus will never pay its debt. "In such a case, better we keep
selling them and make some money rather than not make anything at
all," one Russian diplomatic source says.
The Gulf diplomatic sources say under a new arrangement, Syria can
now order weapons from Russia for cash, some of which would be
allotted to repay past debts. The sources say Syria's Haddam and
Foreign Minister Farouk Sharaa jointly visited the Gulf countries and
asked for financial assistance in January and in May.
Despite the activity, US officials say Syria is far from ready for
war. Some leading Arab analysts agree, insisting that Syria's Assad
still has not given up hope on US efforts to facilitate a settlement
with Israel. At the same time, pointing to Saudi Arabia's economic
difficulties, they are skeptical whether Syria will obtain the Gulf
funding for new arms deals.
"Hafez Assad and Abdul Halim Haddam have not taken the decision
that war is coming," Nasser Eddin-Nashashibi, a prominent Arab analyst
and former adviser to several Arab governments, says. "I think Assad
is committed strategically for peace. He has enough troubles with
Lebanon and the Turks. I don't think a wise man like Assad would wage
war when his allies are less numerous than his enemies."
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
August 8, 1997, Friday
Paper says Israel "pushing region towards an explosion"
Source: Syrian Arab Republic Radio, Damascus,
in Arabic 0430 gmt 6 Aug 97
Excerpts from report by Syrian radio on 6th August
Under the headline " Israel Is Pushing the Region Towards an
Explosion," 'Al-Ba'th' says: Everyone now knows that Netanyahu's
government is executing a premeditated scheme, whose features became
clear in the recent past, and pushing the region towards a big
explosion. With this explosion, Israel seeks to reshuffle the cards
once again, end the peace process and start implementing its declared
programme to entrench its occupation of the Arab territories and
realize the settlement and Judaization plans...
'Al-Ba'th'notes developments in the region, the most dangerous of
which are the suffocating sieges imposed by Israel on the occupied
territories, the constant savage attacks against South Lebanon and the
Netanyahu government's refusal to accept any international calls and
appeals to retreat from its intransigent positions. In the light of
all this, and in the absence of any effective and decisive
international move, particularly by the United States, which, as all
signs indicate, has disavowed its role in the peace process, the
region is moving towards an explosion. Israel and those who support
its intransigence will be responsible for this explosion and its
destructive results...
'Tishrin' says that Israel's government has chosen the policy of
avoiding the main issues, now that its policy has been exposed and its
serious, aggressive course is constantly condemned by the world. The
current escalation against the Lebanese people falls within the
context of this policy.
The paper wonders: When will this adventurous, aggressive and
provocative course - that is leading the region from bad to worse, and
that is inflicting great damage on the peace process and its sponsors
- be allowed to continue unchecked sentence as heardâ?
'Al-Thawrah' discusses the same issue, saying: When the Tel Aviv
gang encroaches on the territory of others, carries out acts of piracy
in South Lebanon, violates the April understanding, and when it
exercises mass murder, the policy of scorched land and systematic
state terrorism, then this constitutes the highest degree of
provocation and challenges. It is very difficult to put up with, and
keep silent about, state terrorism and to allow those who pursue it to
mess around with the region's security and threaten world peace.
The paper urges the United States to take a responsible, balanced,
swift and decisive position...
The paper notes that the world community and its various
institutions, as well as Europe and the other peace-loving nations of
the world, also have a role that must develop an effective and
deterrent force to put pressure on and confront Israel and its
attempts to bully others and turn the Arab homeland into a testing
ground for the aggressiveness of Netanyahu and other Zionist figures.
Concluding, the paper says: The kind of peace in which we believe,
and that we seek to achieve for us and for the others, is the peace of
the brave, and not the peace of the weak or of occupation.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
August 5, 1997, Tuesday, BC Cycle
10:19 Central European Time
"Netanyahu concerned over Syria-Iran alliance"
Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu Tuesday voiced concern about
the growing ties between Syria and Iran, following the visit to
Teheran last week by Syrian President Hafez Assad.
"Syria should weigh where its real interest lay," said Netanyahu
during an inspection tour of an army base.
"Syria would do well to bear in mind that conflict with Israel is
not in its interests and that peace with Israel could give it
advantages that will put it in the first line of states in the
region," he said.
The comments reflected growing Israeli- Syria tensions. On Monday
Defence Minsiter Itzhak Mordechai said that the Iranian-Syrian ties
were "a growing danger".
The Ma'ariv daily reported that a senior security source told
legislators that the Syrians were "building the capability of a
surprise attack though we have not seen concrete intentions to attack
Israel"
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The Jerusalem Post
August 5, 1997, Tuesday
"Syria wants to show it has rich, powerful ally"
By Barry Rubin
Iran buys the arms; Russia, China, and North Korea sell them;
Syria aims them at Israel. That's the division of labor presumably
cemented by Syrian President Hafez Assad's recent visit to Teheran's
new "moderate" President Mohammed Khatami.
Since Assad rarely leaves Syria, when he does go abroad it must be
something important. In this case, he wanted to tell the world two
things:
* Syria is not weak and isolated but has a rich, powerful friend
in the region. A Syria -Iran alliance is his answer to an Israel -
Turkey alliance.
* Damascus wants to raise the heat on the Golan Heights issue.
Coupled with recent statements that Syria is willing to go to war over
the issue is a demonstration that Syria has a source of arms and
financing to make that threat credible.
The Syria-Iran relationship, discussed by Defense Minister Yitzhak
Mordechai in testimony to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee yesterday, is not at all new. For instance, in 1993, Russian
planes delivered North Korean Scud-C missiles, purchased by Iran, to
Syria. Iran also paid for Syria's own missile factory. A Scud-C made
there was successfully tested in mid-1996.
"We know the Syrians have several hundred Scud missiles, which can
reach everywhere in Israel, " Mordechai said two months ago. "These
missiles can carry nerve gas, which can be launched against the
population centers in Israel. "
The Syrian regime has been forced by circumstances to put on a
more moderate face and participate every once and a while in peace
talks with Israel.
Nevertheless, its self-image as the proper leader of militant
Arabs and ambitions remain unchanged. Damascus wants to torpedo the
peace process and move the Arab world in a more radical direction. It
still controls Lebanon, directs terrorist groups, and gives a free
hand to the Iranian-backed Hizbullah to attack Israel through southern
Lebanon.
Mordechai told the Knesset committee that Israel is going to do
something about this alliance of radicals. But what? It can ask for
more US efforts to block proliferation of unconventional weapons or
urge Russia to stop selling military technology to those two states.
Yet nothing is likely to change.
The fact remains that Syria does not have much of a military
option against Israel. That is precisely why Assad wants to make so
much noise to imply that he has such alternatives and that people
better give him concessions soon.
As for Khatami's much-advertised moderation, no one expects him to
make peace with Israel. But for continuing to help Syria make loud
threats against Israel, he will pay a price, if only by losing the
chance to improve relations with the West so needed by Iran's
faltering economy and increasingly dissatisfied people.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
BBC Summary of World Broadcasts
August 2, 1997, Saturday
"Syrian army chief warns Israel against war"
Source: Radio Monte Carlo - Middle East, Paris,
in Arabic 1100 gmt 31 Jul 97
In an interview with the Syrian newspaper 'Al-Ba'th'on the occasion
of the 52nd anniversary of the founding of the Syrian army, which
falls tomorrow, Syrian COS Gen Hikmat al-Shihabi warned Israel that it
will pay a heavy price if it launches war against Syria. He added
that the time of Israeli military victories has been over since 1967.
Alluding to Israeli COS Amnon Shahaq's accusation that Syria has
not abandoned the military option, Shihabi said that by daily defying
and provoking the Arabs, the Israeli government is creating an
atmosphere fraught with tension and is leading the region towards a
serious escalation whose grave consequences cannot be predicted by
anyone. He described the draft law passed by the Knesset in the first
reading to uphold the Golan annexation law as a hostile step. He said
the Netanyahu government is playing with fire.
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