Were The Palestinian Election Results Falsified In Favor Of Hamas?

Exit polls differ from actual election results too much to be statistically possible. The election results were apparently altered.

By J. Adams
The Spirit Of Truth Page
http://www.spiritoftruth.org
January 26th, 2006

“The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do.”
- Joseph Stalin


"Two exit polls showed the ruling Fatah Party winning the most votes in yesterday's parliamentary election, with the Islamic militant group Hamas finishing a strong second. Fatah took 46.4 percent of the vote, while the Islamic militant group Hamas took 39.5 percent, according to a Bir Zeit University exit poll. An exit poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Public Opinion gave Fatah 42 percent and Hamas 35 percent." - source

"The Israelis said nothing can scientifically explain poll results that were so drastically wrong,
considering the reputation of the pollsters and the size of their samples." - Associated Press

"Palestinian pollsters were at a loss to explain the discrepancy between the exit polls and the result." - Associated Press

"I don't know why the polls were wrong but it is very important to me to find out the answer,"
- outgoing Palestinian Planning Minister Ghassan Khatib, a former pollster

"The resignations (of the Palestianian Prime Minister and his cabinet) were in part a formality required after an election,
but the timing of the move -
hours before the release of official results - was surprising." - Associated Press

The reported results from yesterday's Palestinian legislative elections have shocked the world as the militant terrorist group Hamas has won in a landslide victory thus taking control of the Palestinian government. Final results from Wednesday’s race for the Palestinian Legislative Council show that Hamas won almost twice as many seats as Fatah. The final tally was Hamas 76 and Fatah 43 with Hamas claiming to have garnered more than 60 percent of the total vote. Consequently, Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurey and his cabinet have announced their resignations.

The concern is that the victory by Hamas means there will be an all-out Palestinian war with Israel since Hamas will not only control its own forces but will also yield authority over the 50,000 police that belong to the Palestinian Authority. Hamas does not recognize the State of Israel and is sworn to its destruction. The group is responsible for launching 425 terrorist attacks since Sept. 2000, killing 377 Israelis and injuring more than 2,000.

But is this upsetting turn of events in the Middle East to be taken at face value? Or might their be deceptive forces involved in what the world is being told.

Upon critical examination, the Palestinian election results are statistically almost impossible to believe. There is a discrepancy between the initial exit poll results and the reported election results that could be explained as a consequence of some sort of fraud..

The early exit polls that occurred during the Palestinian elections indicated that the Fatah party was winning with Hamas coming in second.

According to the Chicago Tribune, an exit poll conducted by Bir Zeit University showed Fatah winning 63 seats in the 132-member parliament with 46.4 percent of the vote, and Hamas winning 58 seats with 39.5 percent. Smaller parties received 11 seats, according to the poll, which had a one-seat (3 percent) margin of error. The poll surveyed 8,000 voters in 232 polling stations.

A poll published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, headed by Khalil Shikaki, showed Fatah winning 42 percent of the national vote and Hamas 35 percent with a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points. This meant 58 seats for Fatah and 53 seats for Hamas. Smaller parties received 13 seats, and 8 other seats were too close to call, according to the poll, which surveyed 17,573 voters in 242 polling stations.

Voter turnout was 78 percent of the 1.3 million eligible voters, election officials said, meaning that around 1 million votes were cast.

Given these exit poll results intially reported after the Palestinian elections, the world was indeed shocked to find out the actual election results were that Hamas reportedly won 60 percent of the vote rather than 35 percent or 39.5 percent as predicted by the exit polls such that the militant organization won 76 legislative seats to Fatah's 43 rather than Fatah winning 58 to 63 seats versus 53 to 58 seats for Hamas as forecast.

To anyone familiar with polling and statistics the election results being reported by the Palestinian Central Election Commission are nearly impossible to believe.

The polls carried out by Bir Zeit University and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research had large sample sets of 8,000 voters and 17,500 voters, respectively. The margin of error was 2-3 percentage points at worst. However, the discrepancy between the exit poll predictions and reported election results in terms of the total vote is 20 and 25 percentage points, respectively. In a statistical sense, the odds of this being true for one exit poll is one in a a hundred million. For two separate exit polls to be so far off is essentially statistically impossible.

The few and far between press reports regarding the highly questionable Palestinian election results explain away the discrepency with exit polls as a consequence of voters lying about their support for Hamas when queried. While this might account for some bias in the sampling, it is foolhardy to believe that this explains away a 20-25 percentage point differential. This sort of gulf is a statistical Grand Canyon that requires a seemingly unprecedented source of bias to occur.

An obvious possible explanation for the statistical discrepency between the exit polls and reported election results is fraud.

While Jimmy Carter and other naive monitors of the Palestinian elections declared that the elections were "well-administrated", they fail to observe the most important part of the voting process, i.e., the gathering and counting of votes. Those counting the votes or, more importantly, reporting the outcome of an election, have much greater potential control over the declared results than those casting ballots. Exit pollsters draw their data directly from the voters, so if there is a discrepancy with the reported election results it is those reporting the results and/or overseeing what those reports will be that should be scrutinized. As quotes above from Joseph Stalin, “The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do.”

But if indeed the Palestinian election results were falsified, the question becomes: By whom and for what purpose?

While at first one might cast a suspicious eye toward Hamas, the truth is that the entire Palestinian leadership, or certainly at least the intelligence services thereof, should come under suspicion. After all, the 'people who count the votes' are not Hamas but rather an election commission established under the auspices of the current government. Furthermore, why is it that Palestinian cabinet members, including Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, so hastily resigned? The election results were far from being finalized as they announced their resignations. Were their declarations part of some sort of pre-planned script? Could it be that the Fatah government was already aware that Hamas was to be handed a victory?

If the Palestinian Authority, or the intelligence services thereof, was behind the falsification of the legislative election results, then one has to wonder what objective is being pursued. Putting Hamas in control of the Palestinians is a recipe for war with Israel. But maybe this is precisely what is being cooked up. In other words, a logical explanation for the falsification of the Palestinian election results by the Palestinian Authority is that the stage is being set for a war with Israel.

The timing of this move for the Palestinians is rather remarkable given current developments with Iran and Syria. Iran is coming under the gun of Israel and the West because of threatening statements made by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad against Israel and the radical Islamic state's pursuit of a nuclear bomb, while Syria is under Western pressure from its involvement in the assassination of fromer Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Iran and Syria held what Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz described as a "terror summit" late last week that coincided with a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv that injured 31 people. Mofaz said the attack was financed by Tehran and planned in Damascus.

Thus, just as tensions between Israel and Syria and Iran are moving toward war, the terrorist organization Hamas has been handed control of the Palestinian government through what seems to have been a fraudulent election.

This exempifies how lies are being told by the enemies of Israel, America and the West that are leading the world headlong into World War Three, just as I foresaw 15 years ago this February...


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"All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke

"It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope.
We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth,
and listen to the song of that siren
till she transforms us into beasts.
Is this the part of wise men,
engaged in a great and arduous struggle for liberty?
Are we disposed to be the number of those
who, having eyes, see not,
and having ears, hear not,
the things which so nearly concern their temporal salvation?
For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost,
I am willing to know the whole truth;
to know the worst, and to provide for it."

- Patrick Henry