J. Adams
November 5th, 2002
The Spirit Of Truth Page
During the dramatic July sell-off in stocks I posted an article examining a special astroharmonic relationship between market crashes and solar and lunar eclipses that is called a "Puetz window". While a major stock market slide of more than 20 percent did occur during the Puetz crash window which closed on July 17th, a full-fledged, history-making panic did not unfold.
As it stands, the Puetz window is about to reopen in the weeks ahead, so the potential for another major stock market drop, if not an epic crash, is about to return.
Several years ago, a stock market analyst named Steve Puetz checked to see if there was a relationship between eclipses and market panics. He studied eight of the greatest crashes in financial history, from the Holland Tulip Mania of 1637 to the Nikkei collapse of 1990. He found that market panics tend to occur around the time of full moons, and that the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse, when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse. Puetz discovered that all eight crashes occurred six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse. The odds of that being a coincidence, according to Puetz calculation, is less than 1 in 127,000. (See related article.)
As for the current juncture, a total solar eclipse will occur on December 4th. This is the first total solar eclipse since June of 2001. (The June 2002 and December 2001 solar eclipses were annular not total.)
According to Steve Puetz theory, the crash window around the the December 4th solar eclipse would be from six days before to three days after the full moon on November 19th, which is also a lunar eclipse, or from six days before to three days after the full moon on December 19th. In other words, possible timeframes for a stock market crash in 2002 would be between November 13th and November 22nd or between December 13th and December 22nd.
Notably, the late-Spring reversal below Dow 10,000 and major sell-off into mid-July started with the lunar eclipse that preceded the June 10th solar eclipse. (See 2002 eclipse calendar.) This was when the Puetz window opened last. The crash windows around the June solar eclipse closed three days after the full moon on July 14th. (See 2002 full moons calendar.) This is when the sell-off climaxed.
If a comparable pattern occurs with the upcoming solar eclipse, then a reversal should start to take hold between November 13th and 22nd with the lunar eclipse prior to the December 4th solar eclipse. The sell-off should climax into late-December 2002 or late-January of 2003 when the Puetz windows close. However, since the timeframe between November 13th and 22nd is associated with a lunar eclipse, there is a chance for a stock market crash during just this specific window.
Notably, since early October the stock market has rallied sharply with the Dow Industrial's strongest monthly gain in more than 15 years. So at the current time, projecting a near-term market crash is strongly contrary to prevailing popular investment opinion. However, there is good reason to believe that a historic panic could be near.
Between 1999 and early this year, the Dow formed a massive top above the psychologically critical 10,000 mark. As explained by Elliott Wave Theorist Robert Prechter in his new book, "CONQUER THE CRASH", according to the Elliott Wave Principle this should have been a Grand Supercycle peak in mass mood that will be followed by the largest breakdown in collective confidence in American history. A good idea of just how historically potent this cyclical reversal is can be surmised by the initial significant break below Dow 10,000 in September of 2001. On September 6th of 2001, the DJIA broke decisively below the 10,000 mark THEN September 11th occurred.


We are once again approaching a time when astroharmonic forces are conducive to a major collective panic. The first Puetz window this year in June/July involved a 25% drop in stock prices. What will the next Puetz crash window involve?
What's more, if the terror of 9/11 is what form a reversal in mass mood took in September 2001, what form will a Grand Supercycle collapse in mass mood take? Could the crash have to do with a future war with Iraq? Is America facing Saddam's Revenge?
New York Times Best Seller
"Conquer the Crash is required reading. It contains some of the clearest, easiest-to-understand material I’ve ever read on Elliott wave. But more important, its real charm, and its usefulness, comes from the fact that Bob Prechter is writing for average folks who probably haven’t really given much thought to what might happen to the economy in the years ahead. And while some of the insights in Conquer the Crash are scary enough, this isn’t really a doom-and-gloom piece. It’s chock full of practical tips for specific actions you can and should take right now."
- Timothy L. Bost
Editor, Financial Cycles
"This book outlines brilliantly and simply the rationale for how and why the bubble developed. Prechter will go down in history as a legend for having predicted the secular bull market and now having provided a lucid description of the economic cataclysm that unfortunately lies ahead. I urge you to read this book and give it to your loved ones, as it provides great tactical advice on how to prepare yourself financially. Reading this book could make the difference between agony and comfort over the next twenty years."
-David Tice
Prudent Bear Fund
| Spirit Of Truth Page | Stock Market Update |