In July the stock market peaked at the psychologically important thousand 14,000 mark and reversed course, since which global financial markets have been extremely jittery including a 10% drop in stock prices into mid-August. This may have been the Grand Supercycle peak Robert Prechter and other Elliott Wave theorists have long been anticipating. If so, a Grand Supercycle crash the likes of which the world has never experienced might be near that could involve the utter collapse of Western Civilization, possibly in the form of a Russian nuclear surprise attack.

I was premature with my warning about a potential crash into September, and the DJIA is now back near the 14,000 mark. While the Dow Industrials might still make a final all-time closing high above the psychologically important 14,000 mark, I suspect unconfirmed by the Transports and Utilities, we are entering the period when mass mood most commonly crashes. What's more, although I have to deem it highly unlikely (for the sake of living day to day!), there's a possibility this crash could take the form of a global nuclear war and the near suicide of man.

Financial panics into October are fairly common due to the seasonality of mass mood swings. As is widely recognized, the stock market has a tendency to fall during "the fall":

                               Percentage
Date                           Decline
__________________________________________
October 19, 1987                -22.6%
October 28, 1929                -12.8%
October 29, 1929                -11.7%
November 6, 1929                -9.9%
August 12, 1932                 -8.4%
October 26, 1987                -8.0%
July 21, 1933                   -7.84%
October 18, 1937                -7.75%
October 27, 1997                -7.16%
October 5, 1932                 -7.15%
September 24, 1931              -7.07%

As can be seen in the table above, nine of the eleven largest one day percentage declines in the DJIA occurred in October or just before and after that often black month. What's more, as Robert McHugh overviewed in a 2005 article, there tendency for major autumn selloffs to occur in the stock market has been particularly pronounced in recent history.

Is this pattern about to repeat? If so, we are about to enter the period of greatest concern, but not only because the fall season is upon us.

Strangely enough, a reason to expect a major mass panic in the near-term is a recent solar eclipse and the lunar calendar.

- THE SEPTEMBER 11th SOLAR ECLIPSE -

There is a risk of a major panic in the days ahead based upon the work of Steven Puetz concerning eclipses.

Steve Puetz discovered that almost all of the largest stock market crashes in history have occurred around the time of a full moon before or after a solar eclipse.

Consider the following excerpt from Peter Eliades online "Current Observations":

A solar eclipse occured on September 11th that was preceded by a total lunar eclipse on August 28th. While I had expected a market crash might ensue with the lunar eclipse prior to the solar eclipse, this did not occur. Hence, the next period during which a collective panic might start is around the time of the full moon after the 9/11 solar eclipse, which occurs tomorrow, September 26th.

While Puetz highlights the likely crash window as being from six days before to three days after a full moon, this is likely too restrictive. Consider, for instance, a University of Michigan Business School study by Ilia Dichev and Troy Janes. This study examined 100 years of the stock market trends as they relate to the lunar phases. According to it, “Returns in the 15 days around New Moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive: We find it for all major U.S stock indexes over the past 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years.”

More importantly , one should note that the selling climaxes during the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes, the largest financial panics of the 20th century, occurred going into a new moon rather than around the time of a full moon. More specifically, the brunt of the 1929 stock market crash occurred following an October 18th full moon and going into a new moon/solar eclipse on November 1st. In 1987, the crash in stock prices mainly occurred after a full moon/lunar eclipse on October 7th of that year and into the subsequent new moon on October 22nd. Notably the lunar eclipse on October 7th, 1987 followed a solar eclipse which occurred that September 23rd. Thus, in general agreement with Steve Puetz' idea, the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes started with a full moon before and after a solar eclipse, respectively, with the panics climaxing around 13 days, rather than 3 days, after the given full moon. Notably, in both cases the full moons seemed to act as a "trigger" for the panic that climaxed just before the subsequent new moon.

- BLACK MONDAY: OCTOBER 8th, 2007? -

The lunar cycle parallels between the 1929 and 1987 October stock market crashes led Chris Carolan, who discovered the Spiral Calendar, to notice a very important seasonal characteristic of mass mood. There is a very specific tendency for collective panics to peak into the 27th and 28th day of the 7th lunar month of the lunar year. In his award-winning article, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, Carolan points out how the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes, along with the 1997 Hong Kong stock market crash, climaxed into the 27th and 28th day of the 7th lunar month, with the "black" crash days occurring on those specific lunar calendar days:

He notes in his article that this pattern was the same with most other major financial panics in the 19th century.

As for 2007, the 28th day of the 7th lunar month will occur on Monday, October 8th. Thus, if a mass panic begins with, or in the wake of, the full moon tomorrow, it should peak into October 8th if the seasonal lunar cycle pattern in collective mood repeats precisely.

- THE SPECTRE OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR -

As I note in my articles regarding reversals from psychogically important thousand marks in the DJIA, sometimes waves of fear in mass mood take the shape of negative historical shocks. One of the most blatant examples of this occurred during the summer of 1990 when the Dow closed at 2999.75 on July 16th and 17th and reversed course (the DJIA didn't close above the 3000 mark until the following year). When the DJIA peaked at 3000, Saddam Hussein made a speech threatening Kuwait. Iraq then massed troops on the Kuwaiti border and, just prior to a full moon/lunar eclipse on August 7th, invaded, precipitating the Persian Gulf Crisis, a spike in oil prices and a major sell-off on Wall Street into October of that year:

Similarly, when the DJIA reversed decisively below the psychologically important 10,000 mark on September 6th of 2001, the 9/11 terrorist attacks followed. Notably, 9/11/01 occurred just before the 27th day of the 6th lunar month, consistent with Carolan's observations regarding autumn panics.

Finally, in October 1973 the DJIA peaked just shy of the psychologically important 1000 mark and then reversed course with the Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War and the global economic crisis that ensued due to the subsequent OPEC oil embargo:

What is interesting about the 1973 Yom Kippur War crisis is that it unfolded in a seasonal pattern consistent with Carolan's autumn panics, except the panic was in the form of an East/West nuclear confrontation rather than a stock market crash on Wall Street.

After Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 6th, 1973, the U.S. intervened on behalf of the Israelis and the Soviet Union intervened on behalf of the Arabs. The U.S.-Soviet confrontation started to take full form just before the October 12th full moon:

By late October, 13 days after the full moon, a full-scale East/West military confrontation was underway. This led the U.S. to go on high nuclear alert with the DEFCON status being raised to 3 on October 24th of that year, the second highest level of nuclear alert ever reached. Interestingly, October 24th of that year was the 28th day of the 7th lunar month.

What's even more incredible is the highest level of nuclear alert for the U.S., DEFCON 2, was reached on the 27th day of the 7th lunar month in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Cuban Missile Crisis is remembered as Thirteen Days in October:

Those thirteen days, October 16th to 28th 1962, fit the lunar calendar in parallel with the 1929 and 1987 stock market crashes as well as the Yom Kippur War crisis in 1973. The Cuban Missile Crisis began soon after the full moon of the 7th lunar month, which occurred on October 13th of that year. The crisis reached its zenith when the U.S. nuclear alert was raised to DEFCON 2 on October 24th, the 27th day of the 7th lunar month that year.

Thus, we have a remarkable historical pattern of panic lows in mass mood occurring into the 28th day of the 7th lunar month. The panic low might take the form of a stock market selling climax, as occurred in 1929, 1987 and 1997....or it can take the form of a nuclear confrontation between East and West, as occurred with the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1973 Yom Kippur War. If this pattern were to repeat this year, then a major mass panic in the form of a financial crisis and/or international geopolitical crisis, would erupt with or in the wake of the full moon tomorrow.

This crash and/or international crisis should reach an apex around the 28th day of the 7th lunar month, i.e., October 8th. Hypothetically, this could be when DEFCON 1 is reached....something that will inevitably occur as I have foreseen. More specifically, during the 1991 Gulf War, when I was in a correspondence with Robert Prechter about what might cause the anticipated Grand Supercycle crash, I had a vision of an NBC special report of chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel that did not occur. About a week after this I heard an air-raid siren followed by the bellowed percussion of a nuclear detonation along with a friend upon reading him the Seventh Seal prophecy from the Bible's Book of Revelation.

How could a global nuclear war erupt as I've foreseen in the days ahead? Well....Israeli's mysterious air strike on Syria on September 6th might have something to do with it...