1998 BEAR MARKET SIGNAL

Likewise, foreign markets around the world are poised to break below key resistance and many of Asia's stock markets are heading below their October 1997 lows. This is some nasty technical deterioration and, if it continues, a Black Friday or Black Monday here is possible (when the U.S. and European stock markets give way to a new bear markets like have taken hold in Asia, it will likely begin with a global crash).

You might want to note the article at the end of this post on the so-called "January Effect". According to this rule of thumb, the stock market's direction during the first five trading day of the year presages what the market will do throughout the year. This is rather ominous given that, with today's 100-point decline, the first five trading days of 1998 saw the DJIA retest 8000 and then fall 200 points. This might mean 1998 will be the first year of the Grand Supercycle bear market.

Seasoned Streeters, however, say the rule has about as much credibility as that other forecaster favorite, the Superbowl theory.

That one goes that if one of the original National Football League teams wins the final later this month, a bull market is in store for stocks.

So far, the bulls are on tenterhooks.

Thursday will be the fifth trading day of the year, and dealers are looking to see if the Dow Industrial Average index ends above or below its close at 7908.25 on December 31, 1997.

Richard Cripps, chief market strategist at Legg Mason Wood Walker said the rule of thumb has been 89 percent accurate since 1950.

``Is it taken seriously? I would say technicians take it more seriously than the fundamentalists think they should,'' Cripps said.

``Short-term, the very trading oriented might react to it to some extent,'' Cripps added.

At the close of trade on Tuesday, the Dow was up just two points from the end-of-year close. The index was down 74 points by noon on Wednesday.

``It's very important that the market starts to dig in,'' said Joseph Barthel, chief investment strategist at Fahnestock & Co.

``Today and tomorrow will answer the question as to whether or not we will have a good 1998 using that indicator. Wall Street will make hay of this,'' Barthel said.

Traditionally, fresh, start-of-year cash flows boost stocks in January.

``The rule does not always work, but it does give us a clue to what the month of January might do, and so far we are not doing too well,'' said Harry Laubscher, market analyst at Tucker Anthony.

``If we are down for the first five days, it would suggest to me that we might be in for a troublesome month,'' Laubscher added.

``Most people don't trade off it, but some people do, though most people do pay attention to it. It's probably more valid than that silly Superbowl theory.''

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Date:          Wed, 29 Oct 1997 08:24:38 -0600 (CST)
From:          Mary (mary.burch@mankato.msus.edu)
Subject:       stock market (fwd)

Submitted this to Vanguard's list back in August....and am 
forwarding it to you as it seems relevant to the events of the 
past week.  Whether this applies I do not know, but I know the 
source and he has a very proven track record in the office of the 
prophet.  I will quote him: 

(BY HAROLD EATMON)

  "...In my last article I mentioned a vision of the Stock 
  Market's 'Big Board' having serious upcoming problems.  I saw 
  the Stock Market soar and then crash.  After the crash, many 
  big business corporations and private parties bought up stocks 
  because of the low cost to buy in.  Then I saw the market begin 
  to climb again in a short period of time.  Then it crashed 
  again bringing tremendous loss, ruin, and devastation to all 
  who bought in the first time.  This is what I have labeled "Two 
  Black Mondays."  The time period between the Two Black Mondays 
  was very close together.  I could not tell exactly how close.  
  It could be a couple of days to a couple of months.  There are 
  some tell-tale signs indicating the season and the setting.  
  *I saw the season to be when 'the leaves fall to the ground' 
  then the first crash would occur.*  I also saw the Yen and Mark 
  fall dramatically just before this sudden and inexplicable 
  crash.  Like Joseph in Genesis, I believe America will have fat 
  years of financial blessing.  I also believe there are coming 
  lean years of financial difficulty for America.  I do not 
  believe God is showing this so people can beat the game 
  financially.  I rather believe He is saying keep your eyes on 
  eternal things.  Store up treasures in Heaven." 

  "The Lord is speaking to us through many types of revelatory 
  and tangible waves.  There are financial waves, natural 
  disaster waves, health waves, political waves, and last, but 
  certainly not least, are spiritual awakening waves.  Whether it 
  is natural waves of revelation or supernatural waves of 
  prophecy, we are called to have ears to hear what the Spirit is 
  saying.  God is saying these are days for repentance, healing, 
  salvation, and blessing.  Our God is speaking.  The question 
  is, are we truly watching, waiting, and listening?" 

--from The Trumpeter Journal
  Summer 1997
---

NOTE:  I am only quoting, so for more information or to 
correspond, please contact Harold Eatmon directly at: 

  Harold Eatmon Ministries, Int'l
  PO Box 48402
  Minneapolis, MN  55448-0402

--

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